Future Global Shocks: Pandemics

Future Global Shocks: Pandemics

 

Classifying pandemics as a Future Global Shock is consistent with considering certain aspects of public health and infectious diseases as “existential threats” to human security as described in the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) of 1994 and reaffirmed in the 2003 UN Commission on Human Security. The UNDP conceptualizes security as human-centric rather than the traditional state-centric and includes protection from the shocks that affect human safety and welfare, such as disease, hunger, unemployment, crime, social conflict, political repression and environmental hazards.

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Resource Details

Authors:
Harvey Rubin, University of Pennsylvania contribution to the OECD project “Future Global Shocks”

Published:
January 2011

Length:
87 pages

Tags:
Economic Impacts
Infectious Disease
Lessons Identified
Pandemic

Table of Contents

Introduction
How 2009 H1N1 Emerged
Are There Existing Management Structures That Help Prepare, Mitigate and Respond in The Event of a Pandemic?
What is the State of The Art Regarding Risk Analysis, Potential Impacts, Existing Models?
Risk Assessment Part 1
Risk Assessment Part 2: Vulnerability and Loss: How Likely Is A Pandemic Global Shock and What Could Be the Economic Consequences?
Research Recommendation: Designing the Optimal Strategy for Risk Communication –Finding Trust in Informed Leadership and The Crowd
Lessons from Other Outbreaks
The Knock-On Effect of Antibiotic Resistance
Lessons Learned Concerning Control Points: Increasing Societal Resilience While Maximizing Resources Prior To, During and After A Pandemic. A Proposed Solution to The Problem
Lessons Learned Concerning Control Points: Increasing Societal Resilience While Maximizing Resources Prior To, During and After A Pandemic. A Proposed Solution to The Problem
An Integrated Approach to The Problem
Lessons from The Past
Recommendations
References

 

Excerpt from Report

Four major lessons emerged from the data and risk analyses described in this report:

  1. there is not sufficient interoperable, globally shared information available in real-time about pandemic risk inventories, hazards or threatened segments of the built or natural infrastructure,
  2. there is a dramatic lack of forward thinking and planning for the creation and distribution of medical countermeasures—including drugs, vaccines and surge capacity, which, in part, arises because of the lack of real-time information,
  3. there is a serious requirement for international harmonization of regulations across the pandemic spectrum, and
  4. there needs to be financially sustainable basic research efforts upon which is based the preparation, mitigation, response and rebuilding that will be required before, during and after a pandemic.

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